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IMO, this will linger until it's well and truly worn out, and then when there's an opportunity to just quit and stop and ignore it all in favor of a new distraction, it'll all just go away.
That is of course Trump's preferred MO, but Trump is not omnipotent. The big problem is that Iran is not going to just let this "go away." Either Trump gives them major concessions or they are going to keep the strait closed, which is going to start inflicting very serious pain quite soon, as the strategic reserve is getting dangerously low and other global reserves are also running low.
4) An ongoing conflict is considered better for purposes of propaganda and invoking domestic wartime powers on a semi-permanent basis, and insiders continue to leverage the effect of military status updates on local markets in order to effectively turn the war into a wealth transfer by coordinating with the white house about when announcements are made and what they contain.
The present situation looks to be in danger of spreading South linking the Middle-Eastern conflict with the African continent and its numerous civil wars through the chain link of Yemen, and Egypt which is reporting drone strikes; and spreading North linking the Ukraine-Russia war to the Middle East as well following Ukrainian strikes on Iranian assets - leading to one giant conflagration and a maelstrom that draws what remains of NATO in through preservation, other nations by proximity or called in by allies. Reports just in relate a Russian missile straying into Poland. RSF ordered to seize Khartoum in Sudan. Egypt, Yemen, Sudan - a nice little triangle overlapping the warzone.
The greatest danger right now is incident baiting to bring in new players and typical over-reactions of some great powers to use disproportionate response which would lead directly to the corridor of acting in the interest of existential threats, and an open fire-fight or hot World War 3. Let's not forget the only reason the USA is a superpower it's the only nation to ever use nuclear weapons against another, (Japan) ruling by terror and which it considered its only option to stop the last world war. Discussion of the various sides submarine fleets is non-existent. They play a critical role in warfare but if Iran was able to detect Israel's cloaked planes during its supposed stealth sorties, then the aggressors may (rightly) fear their submarines are naked to surprise technologies, like the hypersonic asymmetry that America/Israel notably lack.
The only way to stop what's happening is to destroy and even irradiate the lands claimed by Israel (in a rapidly narrowing window) so it becomes uninhabitable for hundreds if not thousands of years. But that would require a rogue pre-eminent strike of a magnitude that would finish the job swiftly -and I'm not sure a single nuke, even today, has that capacity. I had a dream the French did it.
It's quite the mess. There's no logic to it - its religious madness.
From the geriatric Netanyahu and Trump's perspectives, they win whether they live or die.
One thinks he's a descendant of Moses, the other pretends he's the Pope
If it kicks off - I hope we do ~better~ next time around.
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Saudi Arabia, Turkiye and Pakistani have signed the 'Mecca Joint Defence Pact' a miniature 'attack-on-one-is-an-attack-on-all' version of NATO's Article 5, solidifying the situation developed above. Now the countries are packed wall-to-wall in the security dilemma.
And now, the stage is set for the most dangerous conditions possible in the greater region since these countries borders already have hostile zones, Yemen-Saudi-Arabia, Pakistan-India-Afghanistan, Israel-Everyone, can be impacted by falling fly-overs (such as between Iran-Ukraine) or exacerbated by antagonists; and whose joint response will force an existential fire fight.
As soon as the USA, furious at being cut out of its previous sphere of influence over the open-shut-open Strait of Hormuz, decides to bomb Iran, Iran will Bomb Saudi Arabia, the Mecca Pact will bomb Iran. Ad infinitum. Resulting in an escalation of rapid disproportionate response.
All it takes is one spark, eagerly supplied by Zionist Israel, the Mossad and CIA to ignite the fuse - or any number of miscalculations/calculations.
Since one can infer they understand the implications of Mutually Assured Destruction - one can also wonder at their boldness, if not eschatological madness that has divorced itself from issues that concern the realm of matter in favour of their demented spiritual visions - then why would you willing consign the world to flames along with yourself? They certainly have bunkers like NORAD and Iron Mountain to retreat to, and doomsday complexes using their endless wealth on their purchased islands, intending to live out their pedophile fantasies without the interference of the rational, ethical, empathic Goyim.
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Libya has reported drone attacks on its largest refinery at Zawiya. This is likely intended to bring Egypt into the war, if Libya and Israel/Iran/X begin exchanging fire as Egypt risks being hit with wayward munitions.
A quadcopter drone with plastic explosives attached to it flew unnoticed past air defence installations at Germany’s Leipzig/Halle Airport.
Foreign drones flew over the RAAF Williamstown in Australia (in July).
These are precisely the escalations expected, detailed above, and characterise the behaviour of 'antagonists' seeking to bring new players to the table and broaden the continental conflict into global conflict, especially through false flag charges, such as Israel blaming Iran. Once the bombs start flying, it doesn't matter who started it, just who finishes it.
1) The US looks for an off-ramp and cedes control of the Strait of Hormuz to Iran. This puts the dollar's hegemony in jeopardy. It also makes a nuclear war between Israel and Iran likelier down the line
First bit seems an accurate prediction, but it was reasonably to be expected that the current US kakistocracy wouldn't be able to win this war against Iran. Especially after the desperate attempts of their commander in queef to declare victory many times over and over.
Sure they had a chance of winning since they had the best military in the world, but it was being led by the most incompetent ideologues. The type that never admit a mistake therefore never learn anything. They think they're the toughest and the others have no cards. Terminally underestimating opponents by believing their own braggadocio.
And they made Iran look morally superior to the US. That is quite the accomplishment, but tracks with the death of American Exceptionalism as shown by the administration.
Even when their press tries to propagandize a claim of victory no one believes it except for the most fanatic
They starved their own troops because the US bases and supplies were wiped out and their leadership didn't want anyone to know their fuck up. Now they want to 'reassess" their presence in the region. Which is to say the US is trying to find a way to spin it that they meant to have their shit pushed in and lose.
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And declaring the Straits as American territory carries as much weight as some random person anywhere declaring it's theirs. Everyone knowns that and that's how far opinions of US has fallen to keep up with the reality of their wishful thinking.
It's like the us admin is trying to run the country on a veneer of the law of attraction.
